How to Properly Estimate Your True Ethnicity

One of the biggest reasons people choose to take a DNA test is to find out their ethnicity breakdown, but how accurate are those results?

Time and again I see comments accusing the tests of being a “scam” or “completely inaccurate” because the provided results don’t match expected results …. but should they match?  Lets find out together!

What’s Your Documented Ethnicity?

Let’s assume that you’ve done some family research, at least enough that you can trace each line back to where they left the “Old World” (Europe, Asia, Africa) to come to America.  Even better if you know where they were born or resided for multiple generations.

For some this may be your parents or grandparents.  For others, like me, you may have to go back quite a few generations before you get it all figured out.  Understanding that we get half of our DNA from each of our parents, here’s an estimate of my documented ethnicity:

My Ethnicity

• 12.5% Scottish
• 25% English
• 62.5% German

Is it a safe bet to expect that my DNA test results will exactly match this breakdown?  Not at all, and there are 2 main reasons for that.

What’s Your DNA Test Ethnicity?

The first reason your DNA test results won’t match your documented ethnicity is because, at it’s core, DNA companies can only compare your results against other results in their database.  This is also why you’ll generally see different ethnicity results across different DNA companies – it’s not wrong, just incomplete.

DNA companies are contantly improving their analysis, but they’re always only going to be as good as the data they have.  In its simplest terms, the ethnicity they present to you is based on markers found in your DNA compared to known markers with a higher probability of having come from various countries around the world.  As more people take their tests the numbers get better, but it’ll never be 100%.

Here’s how my ethnicities from 2 well-known DNA companies compare with my documented ethnicity:

Company #2

• 25% Scottish
• 75% German

What’s Your Genetic Ethnicity?

The second reason your DNA test results won’t match your documented ethnicity considers exactly what DNA we receive from each of our parents.  The sections of DNA you inherit from each parent, and where they inherited them from, play a large role in our  genetic ethnicity.

By chance you may have inherited 60% of your mother’s DNA from your grandmother, or only 5% of your father’s DNA from your great grandfather.  All of this varience, that makes us so unique, means that determining our genetic ethnicity is very difficult.

The best method I’ve seen for trying to conquer this challenge is by using the tools available from a few different DNA sites in conjunction with each other.  Companies like MyHeritage and GEDmatch allow you to see which sections of chromosome you share with your DNA matches.  You can take that data and use a company called DNA Painter to “paint” your chromosomes with where each section came from in your lineage – both paternal and maternal.

As you work through the data, a picture of your genetic ethnicity will begin to reveal itself.  It can be tedious work, and you’ll be hard pressed to get anywhere near complete until more and more people submit their DNA tests.  My own picture is currently stuck around 25% complete.

Wait, What’s Your True Ethnicity?

Unfortunately the answer to the question “what’s my true ethnicity?” is that it depends.

Which of the above methods make the most sense for what you are trying to discover?  Don’t think of it as right and wrong, just different techniques and different preferences.

Personally, I identify with my documented ethnicity.  Although I won’t stop trying to decipher my genetic ethnicity!

What about you?  Let me know in the comments below what ethnicity you identify with best!

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Be sure to comment below and let me know if you have other genealogy or DNA questions.

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Resources

Here is a list of the resources mentioned in this post:

Ancestry.com – Ancestry.com boasts “the world’s largest collection of online family history records” that continues to grow.  They also have a user base that is heavily skewed to North America, which means you may be able to connect with North American relatives

MyHeritage.com – MyHeritage sports a huge international records database.  Their user base that is heavily skewed to Europe, which means you may be able to connect with more European relatives

DNA Painter – “Paint” your chromosomes with DNA matches to get a picture of which traits you inherited from which branch of your family tree